Disclaimer: The datasets shared in the following article have been compiled from a set of online resources and do not reflect AMBCrypto’s own research on the subject
Ethereum [ETH], the second-largest cryptocurrency in the market, successfully completed its long-awaited switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake PoS recently, ushering in a new era for the network. Although there was excitement during and immediately after the Merge, as the changeover is often known, driving ETH above $1,643, the upswing was very fleeting. In fact, ETH’s price quickly fell back below the $1,600-level on the charts.
One particular graphic makes the case that investors may have planned to sell their interests before the price fell as a result of the Merge. Ethereum saw significant inflows into cryptocurrency exchanges in the days leading up to the Merge, rising from roughly 700,000 ETH on September 12 to nearly 1.7 million ETH two days later, as per the analytics platform CryptoRank.
Given everything, traders are quite confused as to what will happen. A majority of analysts are bullish on ETH. Furthermore, the majority of long-term Ethereum price forecasts are also optimistic.
Why are projections important?
Since Ethereum has seen phenomenal growth in recent years, it is not surprising that investors are placing significant bets on this cryptocurrency. Ethereum gained traction after the price of Bitcoin dropped in 2020, following a protracted period of stagnation in 2018 and 2019.
Interestingly, much of the altcoin market remained idle even after the halving. One of the few that picked up the momentum quickly is Ethereum. Ethereum had increased by 200% from its 2017 highs by the end of 2021.
Ethereum may experience such a spike thanks to several crucial factors. One of these is an upgrade to the Ethereum network, specifically a move to Ethereum 2.0. Another reason is the Ethereum tokenomics debate. With the switch to Ethereum 2.0, ether tokenomics will become even more deflationary. As a result, there won’t be as many tokens on the market to meet increasing demand. The outcome might increase Ethereum’s rising momentum in the future.
In this article, we’ll take a quick look at the cryptocurrency market’s recent performance, paying particular attention to market cap and volume. The most well-known analysts’ and platforms’ predictions will be summarized at the end, along with a look at the Fear & Greed Index to gauge market sentiment.
Ethereum’s price, volume, and everything in between
In 2022, the initial price of Ethereum was $3,722.59. Ethereum, at press time, was trading at $1,423, down -64% from its year-to-date high. Since the summer of 2014, early investors have tripled their investments yearly. The trade volume increased by 11.36% to $20,580,416,635 and held a market cap of $191 billion.
A look at the charts gives us a more comprehensive overview of how the market is though. For instance, ETH, at press time, was trading at its price level from three weeks ago. This, only because the last few days saw the altcoin go on a downtrend following the Merge.
Now, the aforementioned depreciation may have been led by investors digesting the minutes of the FOMC meet. However, with the Merge, it’s likely price appreciation will be on the horizon soon. At least in the long-term.
Ether spot market activity has also increased, with the cryptocurrency surpassing Bitcoin as the most traded coin on Coinbase a while back. Also, while the trading volume for Ether made up 33.4% of the entire turnover recorded in the week ending on 29 July, the volume for Bitcoin came in at 32%, with SOL coming in last.
Even though it can be difficult to forecast the price of a volatile cryptocurrency, most experts concur that ETH may once again cross the $4,000 barrier in 2022. And, according to a recent forecast by Bloomberg intelligence analyst Mike McGlone, the price of Ethereum will conclude the year between $4,000 and $4,500.
Additionally, according to a report by Kaiko on 1 August, ETH’s market share of trading volume will reach 50% parity with Bitcoin’s for the first time in 2022. Although it has a market value of almost $210 billion, it is still half as large as the largest cryptocurrency in the world.
According to Kaiko, ETH outpaced Bitcoin in July as a result of significant inflows into the spot and derivative markets. Most exchanges have seen this surge, which can be an indication of returning investors. Additionally, a rise in average trade size is the exact reverse of what has been seen so far in 2022’s downturn.
On 2 August, Open Interest (OI) of Deribit Ether Options priced at $5.6 billion exceeded the OI of Bitcoin valued at $4.6 billion by 32%. This was the first time in history that ETH surpassed BTC in the Options market.
In fact, a majority of cryptocurrency influencers are bullish on Ethereum and anticipate it to reach incredible highs.
Given the anticipation around the merge, Ethereum has become the talk of the town. The second-largest crypto has beaten the king of crypto to become the most in-demand crypto. A quick division of volume by market capitalization of both cryptos will reveal Ethereum’s relative volume is in fact greater than that of Bitcoin.
While the broader Ethereum community is looking forward to the environment friendly PoS update, a faction has emerged in favor of a fork which will retain the energy intensive PoW model.
The faction is mostly made up of miners who risk losing their investment in expensive mining equipment since the update would render their business model useless. Prominent Chinese miner Chandler Guo stated on Twitter last month that an ETHPoW is “coming soon”.
Binance has clarified that in the event of a fork which creates a new token, the ETH ticker will be reserved for the Ethereum PoS chain, adding that “withdrawals for the forked token will be supported”. Stablecoin projects Tether and Circle have both reiterated their exclusive support for the Ethereum PoS chain after the merge.
TradingView expressed the same opinion at the time this article was written, and their technical analysis of the Ethereum price indicated that it was a “Buy” signal for ETH.
In fact, PwC’s Crypto-head Henri Arslanian claimed in an edition of First Mover that “Ethereum is the only show in town.” However, investors will need to witness increased demand and functioning for Ether’s price to keep climbing.
According to Mudrex’s Edul Patel,
“The Merge will complete Ethereum’s transition to PoS, making it extremely energy efficient and convenient to make payments. That will only aid Ethereum’s massive use cases, ultimately driving demand higher for the ETH token.”
Kenneth Worthington, analyst at JPMorgan Chase, has expressed his confidence in the Merge’s ability to benefit stakeholders like Coinbase. Worthington believes that Coinbase has positioned itself to capitalize on the Merge by “maximizing the value of Eth staking for its clients”
Prominent venture capitalist Fred Wilson published a blog on 15 August outlining the imminent changes that will follow the Merge. Wilson explained that along with a reduced carbon footprint which will make Ethereum more environment friendly, the Merge will alter the supply and demand balance of ether. This change was demonstrated by Bankless in their blogpost where they projected a structural inflow of $0.3 million per day, in contrast to the current structural outflow of $18 million per day.
According to investor and creator of the cryptocurrency research and media organization Token Metrics Ian Balina, “I think Ethereum can go to $8,000.”
ETH Whale Activity
Data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment shows ETH supply held by the top addresses on crypto exchanges has been on the rise since early June. On the other hand, ETH supply held by the top non-exchange addresses i.e. ETH held in hardware wallets, digital wallets etc. has been declining since early June. But why June? Because it was around that time that a tentative timeline for the Merge was disclosed to the community.
Santiment had tweeted last week that over the past 3 months, whales had beefed up their exchange holdings by 78%
So what does this mean? It means that Ethereum whales are moving their ETH onto exchanges. Top ETH hodlers are taking their supply out of cold storage and moving it to exchanges, most likely to facilitate a quick transaction if needed.
In the run up to the merge, a number of exchanges like Coinbase and Binance announced that they will be suspending all ETH and ERC-20 token deposits and withdrawals, in order to ensure a seamless transition.
It is possible that the whales moved their holdings onto exchanges to either preemptively dump their holdings in anticipation of a price slump after the Merge. The other possibility is them waiting till well after the Merge to act on ETH’s price action.
Let’s now look at what well-known platforms and analysts have to say about where they believe Ethereum will be in 2025 and 2030.
Ethereum Price Prediction 2025
According to Changelly, the least expected price of ETH in 2025 is $7,336.62, while the maximum possible price is $8,984.84. The trading expense will be around $7,606.30.
CoinDCX also predicts ETH could have a relatively successful year in 2025 because there may not be much of an adverse impact on the asset. There is little doubt that the bulls could be well-positioned and retain a significant upturn throughout the year. The asset is anticipated to reach $11,317 by the end of the first half of 2025, notwithstanding possible brief pullbacks.
However, you have to remember that the year is 2025, and a lot of these projections are based on Ethereum 2.0 launching and performing successfully. And by that, it means Ethereum has to solve its high-cost gas fees issues as well. Also, global regulatory and legislative frameworks have not yet consistently backed cryptocurrencies.
However, even though newer and more environmentally friendly technologies have been developed, analysts frequently claim that Ethereum’s “first mover advantage” has positioned it for long-term success, despite new competition. The price predictions seem conceivable because, in addition to its projected update, Ethereum is anticipated to be used more frequently than ever before in the development of DApps.
Ethereum Price Prediction 2030
Changelly also argued that the price of ETH in 2030 has been estimated by cryptocurrency specialists after years of price monitoring. It will be traded for a minimum of $48,357.62 and a maximum of $57,877.63. So, on average, you can anticipate that in 2030, the price of ETH will be roughly $49,740.33.
Long-term Ethereum price estimates can be a useful tool for analyzing the market and learning how key platforms anticipate that future developments like the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade will affect pricing.
Crypto-Rating, for instance, predicts that by 2030, Ethereum’s value will likely exceed $100,000.
Both Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead and deVEre Group founder Nigel Green also predict that during the next ten years, the price of ETH will hit $100,000.
Sounds like too much? Well, the functional capabilities of the network, such as interoperability, security, and transaction speed, will radically change as a result of Ethereum 2.0. Should these and other related reforms be successfully implemented, opinion on ETH will change from being slightly favorable to strongly bullish. This will provide Ethereum the chance to entirely rewrite the rules of the cryptocurrency game.
There is broad hope that the first smart contract blockchain will survive this period of trials, despite Ethereum’s rivalries and other factors contributing to its continuous instability.
It is interesting to note that while many eagerly waited for Ethereum’s Merge and beefed up their holdings in anticipation of a price surge, there was a group of investors who weren’t confident in the Merge’s successful rollout. These investors were betting on a glitch in the rollout process, hoping that the update runs into trouble. While some of these investors have started investing in rival tokens in order to profit, others are doing it out of precaution in order to hedge their portfolios. This was corroborated by the volatility witnessed in metrics like daily active users and price action of so-called Ethereum killers like Avalanche, Solana, Cardano etc. in the run up to the Merge.
The majority of Ethereum price forecasts indicate that ETH can anticipate tremendous growth over the ensuing years.
What about the flippening then? Is it possible that the altcoin might pass Bitcoin on the charts in the future? Well, that is possible. In fact, according to BlockchainCenter, ETH has already surpassed BTC on a few key metrics.
Consider Transaction Counts and Total Transaction Fees, for instance. On both counts, ETH is ahead of BTC.
On the contrary, the traditional definition of a ‘flippening’ relates to the market cap of cryptos flipping. As far as the same is concerned, ETH is 48.2% off BTC’s market cap.
Similarly, Google Search Interest for ETH was over 76% off the figures for BTC’s own figures.
However, remember that a lot can change over these years, especially in a highly volatile market like cryptocurrency. Leading analysts’ projections vary greatly, but even the most conservative ones might result in respectable profits for anyone choosing to invest in Ethereum.
And, as far as the F&G Index is concerned, it is now doing better than it was last week and the week before that.